Are Ethiopia and Eritrea hurtling towards war?

Tensions are again mounting between longtime foes Ethiopia and Eritrea over Addis Ababa’s quest for maritime access, causing fears of yet another conflict in the Horn of Africa barely seven years after the two neighbours restored ties.

Eritrea has, in recent months, called for young people to sign up for the army, while Ethiopia has reportedly deployed troops to joint border areas. Analysts say those moves could potentially see the two armies come face to face in a conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in a recent statement on X, ruled out conflict with Eritrea to gain access to the Red Sea. Abiy, who has previously said gaining access to the Red Sea was “an existential issue”, stressed that his country wanted to achieve it “peacefully via dialogue”.

But Eritrea has, on its part, struck a harsher tone, and called Ethiopia “misguided” over border tensions.

Here’s what to know about the two countries’ historically fraught relationship, and why tensions are building again:

Ethiopian soldiers near Agula, north of Mekelle, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia on May 8, 2021 [Ben Curtis/AP]

What are the signs of tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea?

There has been a build-up of hostilities in recent months.

Last September, Ethiopian Airlines, the country’s national carrier, was forced to suspend flights to Eritrea after it received a ban notice from Asmara and its bank accounts there were frozen. Officials of the airline said no reasons were given for the ban.

Then, in February, an Eritrean rights group, Human Rights Concern Eritrea (HRCE) reported that the Eritrean government was issuing military mobilisation directives to citizens below 60 years old, and was calling up reservists. The group said the announcements represented forced conscription policies in the authoritarian-led country.

“This sudden and unprecedented mobilisation has sent shockwaves through Eritrean society, as it is assumed that the war could be with neighbouring Ethiopia,” HRCE said in its report.

“We call on the United Nations, the African Union, and all concerned governments to intervene and pressure the Eritrean and Ethiopian governments to cease these actions, respect the rights of their citizens, and halt any escalation towards war.”

Similarly, according to reporting by the Reuters news agency, Ethiopia deployed troops and tanks on its northern borders with Eritrea early in March. Officials did not give any reasons for the troop build-up there.

People injured in Togoga town in a deadly air attack on a market wait for medical treatment at Mekelle General Hospital, June 24, 2021 [Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP]

Conflict in Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray has also signalled escalating hostilities between the neighbouring countries. Political disputes in Tigray, which borders Eritrea, have seen the government there splinter, with one faction reportedly allying with Eritrea.

The semiautonomous Tigray region was the epicentre of a civil war that lasted from 2020 to 2022, and that created a humanitarian crisis that saw hundreds of thousands killed, and about three million internally displaced. It was a result of the Ethiopian government’s attempts to put down a rebellion by the Tigrayan governing party – the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Addis Ababa accused the TPLF of trying to dominate the country’s federal politics, while the TPLF saw the central government as controlling too much power.

Eritrean forces collaborated with Ethiopian troops during the Tigray war, with all sides being accused of severe human rights violations. However, when a peace deal – the Pretoria Peace Agreement – was signed in November 2022 between the Ethiopian federal government and the rebel regional government, Eritrea was not invited to the negotiations. Some analysts believe officials in Eritrea felt slighted, and that the move drove a wedge between the two governments.

TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael addresses the public during the party’s first emergency general congress in Mekelle, Ethiopia, on January 4, 2020 [Eduardo Soteras/AFP]

Why has the TPLF broken into factions?

The fragile peace achieved in Tigray has since come apart as an interim TPLF administration installed after the war split into two factions this year.

A dissident faction accuses the interim TPLF government, led by Getachew Reda, of failing to uphold the peace deal agreements, such as returning displaced people to their homes, and of “selling out” Tigrayan interests in its alliance with the federal authorities. In the latest offensives last week, the breakaway faction, under TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, seized the major Tigrayan towns of Adigrat and Adi-Gudem amid reports of civilian displacements and injuries. The group also reportedly took over the main radio station in Mekelle, the regional capital.

The breakaway faction is also accused of collaborating with Eritrea, although the government in Asmara denies any links with dissident TPLF members.

In a statement on Wednesday, the interim TPLF administration sought help from the federal government in Addis Ababa, saying “the region may be on the brink of another crisis”.

General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a vice president in the interim administration in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, writing recently in the Africa Report, an Africa-focused magazine, echoed those thoughts.

“At any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out,” he wrote.

Why are relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia historically fragile?

Eritrea was an Italian colony until 1951, when it fell under British control and became an autonomous part of Ethiopia. In 1962, Ethiopia sought to annex Eritrea, but rebel forces, led by leader Isaias Afwerki, resisted in an armed struggle and secured independence in 1993.

In 1998, clashes broke out over disputed border territories, resulting in a two-year war. An estimated 80,000 people were killed, and the conflict broke apart families across borders as all diplomatic ties and interstate communication – transport, phone, and postal networks – were cut. In 2000, a UN-backed peace deal granted the disputed territories to Eritrea, but the deal was never implemented.

When Abiy became prime minister in 2018, he immediately moved to end the tensions and normalise diplomatic relations with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who has ruled since 1993.

“We will demolish the wall and, with love, build a bridge between the two countries,” Abiy had said during his historic trip to Asmara after decades of strife.

Soon, communication links were re-established and many families reunited. Flights also commenced between the capital cities of Addis Ababa and Asmara.

However, analysts say Eritrea, following its involvement in the Tigray war, was unhappy about being excluded from the peace negotiations. The TPLF main faction and Eritrea remain deeply hostile towards each other, and some reports reveal that Eritrean forces have not fully withdrawn from parts of Tigray, despite the war being over. There is speculation that both countries could turn Tigray into a proxy battlefield.

Abiy’s ambitions to seek direct sea access for landlocked Ethiopia have also contributed to the tensions. Addis Ababa’s access to the port was severed after Eritrea declared independence. Since then, the Red Sea port of Djibouti has been the main trade conduit for Ethiopia, but it is costly – about $1bn annually.

In recent years, Abiy has repeated that Ethiopia has a right to sea access, words that officials in Asmara take as a declaration of territorial conflict with Eritrea, which lies on the Red Sea and took all of Ethiopia’s sea access with it upon independence. Some say Abiy is eyeing the port of Assab, one of Eritrea’s two ports.

Foreign Minister Osman Saleh gave a briefing this morning, at the Foreign Ministry HQ in Asmara, to Resident Ambassadors/Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Heads of UN Agencies accredited to the country, on false accusations regarding: i) Eritrea's presumptive preparations for…

— Yemane G. Meskel 🇪🇷 (@hawelti) March 18, 2025

In a press briefing last week, Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh scolded Ethiopia for its rhetoric and denied preparing for a war.

“Eritrea is perplexed by Ethiopia’s misguided and outdated ambitions for maritime access and naval base through diplomacy or military force,” Saleh said. “In this respect, Eritrea urges the international community and its relevant bodies to put pressure on Ethiopia to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbours.”

Ethiopia has also angered Somalia, its neighbour to the east, with those declarations. After Ethiopia signed a port deal with autonomous, coastal Somaliland, Somalia, which sees Somaliland as one of its regions, cut off diplomatic ties with Addis Ababa.

In what appeared to be retaliation and, perhaps, taking sides, Eritrea signed a security agreement with Somalia and Egypt last October. Ethiopia has also fallen out with Egypt over issues related to shared access to the Nile River.

What next?

Amid fears of another conflict, residents in Tigray are queueing at banks to withdraw cash, some hoping to leave the region for Addis Ababa or neighbouring countries, according to reporting by the United Kingdom’s Guardian newspaper. Government forces are also patrolling heavily and conducting ID checks.

Abiy, in a post on X, sought to allay fears. He assured that Ethiopia would not go to war with Eritrea but would seek a peaceful dialogue to resolve the issues.

"Ethiopia does not have any intention of engaging in conflict with Eritrea for the purpose of gaining access to the sea. Our desire is to engage in dialogue and discussion on this matter instead. Access to the Red Sea is nevertheless an existential matter for Ethiopia. What we… pic.twitter.com/QOdbJGxHYe

— Office of the Prime Minister – Ethiopia (@PMEthiopia) March 20, 2025

“Ethiopia does not have any intention of engaging in conflict with Eritrea for the purpose of gaining access to the sea,” Abiy said on Thursday, according to a post by his office on X.

Eritrea has not responded to Abiy’s statement. Earlier, Osman Saleh, the country’s foreign minister, denied allegations of Eritrean troops’ presence on the ground in Ethiopia.

This week, Saleh also met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo to discuss “the security of the Red Sea” as Asmara appears set to continue parlaying with stronger rivals of Ethiopia.

Meanwhile, the African Union, the European Union, and the United States have called for a de-escalation of hostilities. Writing in the US magazine Foreign Policy last week, Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, former US and EU special envoys to the region, described the developments as “dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea”.