Canada’s Liberal leadership race: Who’s running to replace Justin Trudeau?

Montreal, Canada – The race to replace Justin Trudeau as leader of Canada’s governing Liberal Party – and as the country’s next prime minister – is nearing its conclusion.

The Liberals will choose a new leader on March 9 after a campaign that has been dominated by concerns over United States President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and hostile rhetoric against Canada.

After months spent trailing the opposition Conservative Party by a wide margin, recent polls show the Liberals are now riding a wave of political momentum thanks in part to Trudeau’s resignation and fears of a trade war with Washington.

The federal election must be held by October 20, but it could be called sooner.

The Liberal Party will be choosing from four leadership hopefuls, with economist and former central banker Mark Carney leading the pack followed by ex-Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Al Jazeera looks at the candidates vying to lead the Liberal Party, where they stand on key issues, and whether they will be able to lead their party to a strong showing in the next election.

Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada governor

Carney announced his leadership bid at a rally in Edmonton, Alberta, on January 16 [Amber Bracken/Reuters]

Carney, 59, has tried to portray himself as a political outsider, putting distance between himself and the widely unpopular Trudeau.

The economist previously served as governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and he acted as an economic adviser to Trudeau’s government. He also served as a United Nations special envoy on climate action and finance.

“Too many are falling behind. Too many young people can’t afford a home. Too many people can’t find a doctor,” he said during a rally to announce his Liberal leadership bid in Edmonton, the capital of Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta, on January 16.

According to Semra Sevi, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, Carney’s experience as a former central banker gives him “substantial credibility on economic issues”, which have been a major concern for Canadians amid rising costs and a housing crisis.

“He can position himself as an expert in managing inflation, housing affordability and financial insecurity,” she told Al Jazeera.

Yet on the flip side, Carney’s “lack of direct political experience could make him seem out of touch with grassroots concerns”, Sevi said. “His technocratic background may not translate easily into the kind of leadership voters expect during tough times.”

Justin didn't ruin Canada alone.

Carbon Tax Carney & Chrystia were right by his side as he doubled housing costs and hiked the tax on gas, heat & groceries.

The next Liberal leader will be Just Like Justin: https://t.co/phXSjPB24c pic.twitter.com/Nj08tDsiFY

— Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) January 20, 2025

The decision to launch his campaign from his home province of Alberta – where residents typically vote for right-wing parties – was also noted by experts.

“The new Liberal leader will need to focus on regaining support in western Canada, particularly in Alberta,” Sevi explained.

In that vein, Carney has said he will scrap an unpopular federal programme that placed a price on carbon emissions.

The climate policy, introduced under Trudeau, has been a top target of attacks from right-wing politicians, including Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. With Trudeau leaving, it became an early point of contention in the Liberal leadership race, as well.

Poilievre, a populist politician who has been in Parliament since the early 2000s, has used the nickname “Carbon Tax Carney” to blast the economist for his past support of the policy.

“It’s clear that Carbon Tax Carney and the Liberals will say anything to try and hold power. But they cannot be trusted. Carbon Tax Carney is just like Justin,” the Conservatives said in a recent statement.

Despite those attacks, Carney has racked up endorsements from top Liberal ministers, including Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault and Minister of Emergency Preparedness Harjit Sajjan.

It’s time to build.https://t.co/dsz02q6qZA pic.twitter.com/vvYHC7dKnJ

— Mark Carney (@MarkJCarney) January 23, 2025

The backing of ministers from the French-speaking province of Quebec – where the Liberals typically draw a key segment of their support – may also prove critical for Carney, according to Jim Bickerton, a political science professor at St Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia.

“It’s always important that the Liberal leader have a strong support base in Quebec,” Bickerton told Al Jazeera.

Carney also has hit back at Poilievre, comparing him to Trump, who has embraced anti-immigrant policies and regularly attacks the media and his perceived critics.

“You can’t stand up to Trump when you’re working from his playbook,” Carney said in a campaign video.

“Pierre Poilievre has been a politician his entire life, and in all that time, he hasn’t fixed a thing. He just complains, misleads and blames everything on someone else.”

Chrystia Freeland, ex-deputy prime minister and finance minister

Freeland holds a campaign event in Toronto on January 19 [Cole Burston/Reuters]

Freeland has been a key member of Trudeau’s inner circle since she was first elected to represent a Toronto electoral district – known as a riding – in 2015, the year the Liberals swept into power.

Since then, she has held various high-profile government portfolios, including as deputy prime minister and finance minister.

But in a surprise move, Freeland announced in December that she was resigning from Trudeau’s cabinet.

In her resignation letter, she said she was stepping down because she and Trudeau were “at odds about the best path forward” for Canada in the face of a threat from Trump to impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods.

Her break from Trudeau is believed to have been a key factor in the prime minister’s decision to step down as Liberal leader.

Freeland had led the Canadian team tasked with renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during Trump’s first term as president, from 2017 to 2021 – and she has pitched herself as the best person to manage US-Canada ties with Trump in the White House again.

“If you hit us, we will hit back,” she said during her leadership campaign launch on January 19.

She also promised to “inflict the biggest trade blow that the United States has ever endured” if Trump follows through on his tariff threat.

I’ve taken my share of slings and arrows over the years. And I’m still standing. Because you know what? I know how to fight—and I know how to win. Join me. https://t.co/OX0nImMAZ4 pic.twitter.com/qWeLt9iSZq

— Chrystia Freeland (@cafreeland) January 20, 2025

A staunch defender of Ukraine amid Russia’s war, Freeland – who is of Ukrainian descent – has garnered endorsements from a number of Liberal MPs, including cabinet members such as Health Minister Mark Holland and Justice Minister Arif Virani.

But with recent polls showing that Canadians want change after nearly a decade of Liberal rule, experts say that Freeland’s status as a former member of Trudeau’s team may hurt her.

“She’s been Justin Trudeau’s right-hand really for the duration of this government … She’s been a loyal soldier,” said Bickerton.

“And that’s probably a weak point because if, in fact, after 9.5 years, Canadians are ready for a change in direction or a change in government, then she doesn’t fit the bill because she’s very closely associated with the current government.”

Nevertheless, if chosen to lead the party, Freeland could try to appeal to the more progressive side of the Liberal base by highlighting her involvement in key social programmes over the past five years, Bickerton said.

“Oftentimes, the Liberals either win power or lose power based on how much of the [left-leaning New Democratic Party] NDP support they can draw to themselves,” he said. “I think Chrystia Freeland will probably stake her appeal to the Liberals on that basis.”

So far, she has attempted to break from some of the less popular policies pursued by the Trudeau-led government, including by promising to cancel the carbon pricing scheme for Canadian consumers.

“Where people have a consumer-facing price on carbon, they’re saying, ‘You know, we don’t like it,'” she said in a January interview. “So we have to listen, and at the same time, we do need a strong plan to fight climate change.”

She has also argued that Trump’s “obvious dislike of her” is a strength, Bickerton noted.

“She presents that as a positive thing, that she’s a tough negotiator, that she’s a strong woman who would be able to stand up to Trump in the current aggressive tariff war that’s looming.”

Yet the government’s record has appeared to follow her.

In a scene reminiscent of what former Vice President Kamala Harris faced during the 2024 US presidential election, Freeland’s campaign launch event was repeatedly interrupted by protesters denouncing Canada’s support for Israel amid the war in Gaza.

The demonstrators held up a banner that read, “Freeland: Our deputy PM gravedigger”, a reference to the more than 47,100 Palestinians killed in Israel’s 15-month bombardment of the enclave.

Karina Gould, ex-leader of the Liberal government in the House of Commons

Gould delivers the Fall Economic Statement in the House of Commons in December 2024 [Blair Gable/Reuters]

The 37-year-old MP from Burlington, Ontario, has held various positions within the Liberal government since she was elected to Parliament in 2015.

Over her time in office, she has served as the minister of democratic institutions, minister for international development, and minister of families, children and social development. In the latter role, she helped implement a national childcare programme that cut daycare costs for Canadians.

In 2023, she was named leader of the government in the House of Commons – a cabinet role she resigned from in order to launch her Liberal leadership bid.

“We have a big challenge ahead of us. Canadians have lost trust in our party, and if we are going to be able to keep building our country, we must rebuild our party,” she said during a rally to launch her campaign on January 19.

“I became a Liberal at the age of 14 because I believe in Canada. I believe in who we are as a people. I believe in the promise that we represent for the entire world. The Liberal Party of Canada is not a hobby for me; it is not a side project.”

The youngest candidate in the race, Gould credited the “bold ideas of the young Liberals of Canada” with pushing forward same-sex marriage legislation, marijuana legalisation and reconciliation with Indigenous peoples.

She added that she wants to re-engage party members to bring new ideas forward and usher in a “new generation” of leadership.

It’s time for a new generation of leadership. I'm here for Canada and for you today, tomorrow and for years to come. pic.twitter.com/4GpuNzFFS2

— Karina Gould (@karinagould) January 18, 2025

According to Sevi, “Gould could attract attention from younger voters and those looking for a future-focused choice.”

The professor also noted that her fluency in French “gives her an edge” in Quebec, whereas Carney and Freeland are less proficient in the language.

“While Gould is unlikely to win this time, selecting her could be a smart long-term strategy. Regardless of who wins the leadership, the Liberals are unlikely to win in the 2025 election,” Sevi said.

If Gould does win the leadership race, she will become the youngest prime minister in Canadian history.

Frank Baylis, Quebec businessman and former MP

I am stepping up to lead the Liberal Party of Canada and become our nation’s next Prime Minister.

Canada is an extraordinary country with immense potential, but we face serious challenges that require bold leadership.

Over the past 35 years, I’ve built successful businesses… pic.twitter.com/P3hK0gf2fy

— Frank Baylis (@frankbaylis) January 15, 2025

Baylis was elected to the House of Commons in the Montreal-area riding of Pierrefonds-Dollard in 2015. He held the seat until the next election in 2019, when he chose not to run again.

“During that time, I championed Canadian innovation, supported human rights, and collaborated across party lines to address systemic challenges,” Baylis said.

An entrepreneur, he also has touted his business experience over the past decades and said he intends to help tackle Canada’s affordability crisis.

“As your leader, I will focus on making life more affordable for families, addressing economic challenges head-on, and investing in Canadian industries and innovation to create good-paying jobs,” he said.

This story was last updated on March 5, 2025.