'Liberation Day' will either usher in a glorious new era for US prosperity or very much the opposite

For Donald Trump, it's "Liberation Day" - for allies it could be the end of an era. A period of mutually fostered prosperity is, it seems, coming to a close. 

They are asking if the America we knew is gone for good?

Jitters spread on Wall Street - tariffs latest

Some are making up their minds already.

Canada's new leader Mark Carney was not mincing his words this week. America had changed so much under Trump, he said, that their relationship, which had been "based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over".

Europe's central banker Christine Lagarde said on Monday that Trump's tariffs mean the continent must begin a "march for independence". Transatlantic partners who have prospered for decades through mutual dependence are filing for divorce.

Others, like Britain's Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, are holding out hope there is enough of a relationship still worth having.

Key questions

For all of America's friends and allies, there are a few key questions. Is that it now, will Trump go on wreaking havoc on the world order for the next four years? It seems likely.

Unlike his first presidency, this is Trump untethered.

No grown-ups saving him from his worst impulses - replaced this time by unquestioning loyalists.

No fears about his re-election chances. And so, no apparent concern about a tanking stock market or even the chances of recession.

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President seeking retribution

Donald Trump's ambitions transcend those concerns, not least seeking retribution as he sees it for the way that America has been treated by allies. Grievances that need redressing through his favourite instrument - tariffs.

Much depends on the way he wields them. Hopes that his tariff threats are purely negotiating tactics seem increasingly forlorn.

"Liberation Day" will either usher in a glorious new era for American prosperity or very much the opposite.

President Trump says it will reshore American manufacturing and raise billions in revenue.

Most economists are sceptical. Doing that would take years anyway. Before then, they predict inflation and economic pain.

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What will happen in the 2026 midterms?

The economy is always what counts most when Americans come to vote. The price of eggs was famously a key issue in the last presidential election.

If "Liberation Day" brings more such pain, Donald Trump can expect to do badly in the mid-term elections.

Political gravity may already be at work. Two by-elections in Florida on Tuesday may have been won by Republicans - but with support halved compared to levels last November.

And despite millions thrown at it by Trump's campaign financier in chief, Elon Musk, a judicial contest in Wisconsin went against him.

Republicans loyal to Trump in public

At town hall meetings up and down the country, Republican members of Congress have been on the sharp end of voter discontent, booed and jeered to the rafters.

In public, Republicans remain unswervingly loyal to the president. In private, they must be worrying what MAGA will do to their electoral margins come 2026.

Will that deter Trump? Probably not. He has a mandate from the American people and he believes from God who he says saved him to make America great again. And he has a mission to do that his way.

He is even now openly discussing a third term against all the rules of the US constitution.

America as a reliable partner, the bulwark of the West is, it seems, for now at least history. Allies and all of us need to prepare for a different future.