Palmer off the boil? The numbers that may surprise you

Has ice cold Cole Palmer gone off the boil?

A cursory glance at his recent statistics does not make for great reading. Three goals in 11 games across all competitions and zero assists in his last 13.

It would be easy to place that output alongside Chelsea's drop-off in form and lay the blame for the Blues' struggles at the feet of their star man.

But that would be an incorrect assessment.

Chelsea's trip to Aston Villa on Saturday evening, live on Sky Sports, is a fitting moment to take a closer look at Palmer's performances and the real problems Enzo Maresca's side are facing.

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It was back on December 1, against Villa at Stamford Bridge, where Palmer recorded his most recent assist, stroking the ball into the feet of Enzo Fernandez to poke in Chelsea's second of the afternoon. Palmer wrapped up the 3-0 win himself, with a wonderful curling strike into the top corner.

The result moved Chelsea up to third in the Premier League table, level on points with Arsenal. Maresca had to field questions about whether his team were title contenders in his post-match press conference.

No one is asking him that now.

While Chelsea won their next three Premier League games after that Villa success, they went on to draw three and lose four of their next nine, with a collapse from mid-December putting their Champions League qualifying hopes in serious doubt.

The 3-0 loss at Brighton last Friday was labelled Chelsea's worst performance of the Maresca era, with the visitors failing to even land a shot on target at the Amex.

During the match, Sky Sports' Jamie Carragher highlighted a moment of annoyance from Palmer. "I just watched Cole Palmer do something silly and daft," he said on co-commentary. "But it's a frustration, not just because of today but it's after what's been going on for the last few months.

"Trying to walk through three players when it's not on… but that's almost frustration - like if he passes the ball, what are his team-mates going to do with it?"

The stats show why Palmer may have been feeling that way.

Ironically, during this drought of assists, when casual observers have started to question Palmer's contribution, his creativity has actually increased.

Palmer recorded six assists in the first 13 games of this season. During the 12 games since, the expected assists data - which measures the quality of the chances he produces - has almost doubled, from 2.63 to 4.15.

In fact, across the entirety of this season, Palmer can feel aggrieved for not having more assists to his name, given the number of big chances he has created for his team-mates.

Only Bukayo Saka has carved out more clear-cut openings, yet the Arsenal player and Mohamed Salah at Liverpool, who has created 18 big chances - like Palmer - both have significantly more assists.

Of course, wastefulness in the frontline is nothing new to Chelsea fans. There has been criticism of Nicolas Jackson for some time - and the Senegal striker has the worst big-chance conversion rate among players who have had 20 or more of those must-score moments this season.

Noni Madueke (11 big chances missed from 15) and Christopher Nkunku (five missed from seven) have also seen goal-scoring moments pass them by.

Perhaps the real frustration for Chelsea is that Palmer cannot be on the end of the chances he creates himself.

In the past 10 Premier League games, Palmer has only had two big chances of his own and he has scored them both, kicking off the New Year with back-to-back strikes against Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.

His 47 per cent conversion rate of big chances is the best at Chelsea of players who have had at least two such openings.

Carragher pulled apart the Chelsea goalkeeping options, the defence, midfield and attack at Brighton.

They have plenty of problems right now - but Palmer is not one of them.